Crypto Turtling Time

“Paranoia pays.” - Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

1. Crypto

ApeCoin +49% at high since called 3 months ago, much more if staked

MARA +134% at high, +114% at Friday’s close

As noted previously MARA profits and the core position had been trimmed when it was up ~ 100%, to 1/4 its original dollar value and is effectively cost-free.

I’m closing that last 1/4 position whenever it next trades below Friday’s close of $8.71, which will probably be at tomorrow’s open.

H/t The Bear Cave:

CFO of Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA — $1.46 million) resigned “for personal reasons” after a little over one year. Last month, J Cap Research alleged accounting irregularities and dubious related party payments at the company.

Last update on crypto I noted:

ApeCoin has been under-performing the sector overall. While the super-high APR mitigates this significantly, it’s still a concern.

ApeCoin trades at $4.42 at time of writing. Below $4.20 I’ll either withdraw or hedge the original dollar value until markets calm and I have a renewed bullish signal.

That happened, so I did exactly that. ApeCoin position is fully hedged, with staking rewards still incoming and being converted to cash.

I’d further stated:

Crypto exposure should be hedged when bitcoin is below $27k in my opinion.

Bitcoin now trades at $28300. If it climbs above $29k I’d move the hedging line up to $28k.

Bitcoin did briefly climb above $29k and now trades barely above $28k

Below $28k I will be net short crypto, aggressively, unless or until both Etherium is above $1860 and Bitcoin above $29400

Above those levels I’ll turn heavily long again, but crypto looks very toppy lately and purely from a cyclical perspective the timing is good to lighten-up or short. Add the stench emanating from various parts of the sector and adjacent, plus regulators in the US openly at war with crypto and related businesses, and prudence will probably pay.

Many, or most, in crypto can’t imagine their favourite token trading 70-90% lower this year, if ever. I’ve seen an estimate from well-known persons in the space placing a “0.1% chance” on a 33% drop. Nonsense. A 70-90% drop has very high odds: 50/50.