Five - Financial
For the financial slot my “one and done” is PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL)
It’s a somewhat polarizing brand among consumers. No comment.
Focusing instead on fundamentals, I’ve read compelling cases for PayPal in recent months that I believe everyone would agree paint a promising picture for continued stability and growth.
I won’t go deep into the wonky woods of flows, comps, stories and forecasts in this medium. Rather link to writers who excel at it with a passion, or official sites for info.
I defer to the hordes. Tesla shorts always had fact in their favor yet got crushed into the top of a generational speculative mania in doomed shitcos by cults of carnival barker personalities across-the-board.
Did you know there’s an inverse-Cramer memecoin?
Buyers in general will suffer a beating like early-bird shorts took at the top, but we haven’t seen capitulation yet so it’s unlikely the bear’s fled the scene.
PYPL closed today at $77.08
I don’t hold any yet.
Got lucky swinging it last year but hoping to keep it long term this time.
Wouldn’t surprise me to see PayPal near $60 if equities overall swoon significantly again this year. It’s already back to a level first reached 5 years ago, but until volume also reverts to past norms I doubt it’s done dropping.
My substack launch at this stage of the economic and market cycle is not coincidence. We are finally at or near a time when it seems reasonable and responsible to me to start to buy and hold.
The PayPal chart looks as expected at such inflection points.
I’ll buy over $80
If that turns out to be buying a “false breakout”, no problem. Either way the right thing for me to do, in a portfolio that’s already net long, is at least wait to see the price of PYPL moving a little in the direction PayPal’s prospects and fundamentals seem headed.
Should it fail to do that, instead falling below its 52-week low and apparent prior price support, I’ll reassess and probably choose a new technical trigger.
If it declines significantly I’ll only consider catching a falling knife on a single-day drop of 5% or more during a market rout, or pick that knife up off the floor when volume eventually calms.