I’m trying a new format in this entry to keep myself and hopefully regular readers amused while new subscribers - welcome! - can quickly catch up on my themes and positioning.
As always, feedback in the comments section is appreciated.
Closing two holdings in oil basket; One And Done idea #8
Oil advances as IEA predicts supply deficit for rest of 2024
Newfoundland and Labrador asked to figure out cost of shutting down oil projects
NRGU is already up 36% since added 5 weeks ago.
While I remain very long term bullish on oil, such a quick run-up while markets overall seem so precarious, and the 3x levered nature of this position, concerns me enough to close it.
Dividend-payer DVN - Devon Energy is also effectively levered by virtue of having 2 positions open in the name.
The latest DVN entry is up 14% in those same 5 weeks, dividend included.
I’m closing that 2nd DVN position too.
That’ll leave 1 DVN and 1 OXY - Occidental Petroleum position open in this oil sector basket for the longer term.
Most newsletters or blogs pretend readers have a limitless flow of capital to deploy, always buying yet seldom selling. That’s disingenuous at best, and little if anything kind can be said of their track records anyway.
In stark contrast my actionable ideas often include sales thereby ensuring fresh capital, while an exceptionally high hit rate allows top-tier timing and results to be regularly compounded.
With that in mind, I’ll add additional swing positions when my next timing signal triggers for oil.
Ref:
Markets
Pure coincidence, indicating nothing?
Be aware and beware.
Ref:
Positions
Guns & Dividends
South Carolina Becomes 29th State To Allow Carrying Firearms Without A License
Smith & Wesson Brands had a fantastic quarterly report recently, spiking the stock upward.
In the 5 months since I suggested this basket as One And Done idea #9, SWBI is up 30%, POWW is now up 18% (having gained as much as 36% within a few weeks of my call), and RGR down 14%. These figures include dividends.
VSTO is up 23%, however I’d announced tossing it from this basket at a break-even price when it divested its guns and ammo segment.
Outlook for this sector remains long-term bullish, with no changes to these holdings expected anytime soon.
Ref:
Gold
Spot Gold Price Hits New Record High As ETFs Continue To Contract
No surprise here as I’ve been hyper-bullish gold since starting this substack early 2023.
See my related positions here.
The latest entry, AGQ - a levered silver ETF - has already gained as much as 22% in less than a month since entered.
Ref:
Copper & Basic Materials
Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says “Copper's Time Is Now”
A bit late on Goldman’s part, but no worries given they’re quite right and copper has a very long way to run far higher.
In just 2 months since I suggested a copper basket of 3 holdings as One And Done idea #11, CPER is up 7% while UYM is up over 23% and COPX up 21%.
That’s an average gain of 17% in 2 months, still looking very long-term bullish.
Ref:
Uranium & Nuclear Energy
Amid explosive demand, America is running out of power
Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, leaving utilities and regulators grasping for credible plans to expand the nation’s creaking power grid. Link.
The Nuclear Boom Is Here: Uranium Projects Jump Back On Line As Price Soars
Outlook remains very bullish in the longer term, with the predicted consolidation in uranium likely over as the next leg higher begins.
Global Uranium ETF (ARCA: URA) remains my “one and done” for the sector, and it’s now up 32% since my call last January. At its high since then it was up 49%.
Two additional URA positions were closed in late September. One was booked for an 18% gain in under 5 weeks, while the other netted 21% in 2 months.
Considering the latter was purchased with proceeds from a BNKU position that had just gained 31% in a few weeks, that’s a massive compounded gain for such a short holding time.
Several of the other uranium suggestions made last January, and since, are up far, far more. I’m still occasionally adding LTBR (Lightbridge Corp.) below $5.00
Ref:
Big Banks
US Bank Crisis Looms As Deposit Outflows Accelerated Last Week, Loan Volumes Stagnate
After booking several big, quick gains in the sector, this idea remains flat - no position - while I’m personally still long BNKU as previously stated:
Though I still like big banks in the long term and will hold-on to dividend paying financials in my personal holdings, my commentary here offers nothing unique or of value if it boils down to “buy and hold banks”.
Banks could go far higher before a top, however the exceptional opportunity identified back in March, while the world was panic-selling financials, has clearly passed and BNKU doesn’t pay a dividend to hold it.
Ref:
Tesla Short
TSLQ (an ETF instrument for shorting Tesla - TSLA) is up 19% since my latest “Short Tesla” call exactly 2 months ago. It was up 28% at its peak a week ago.
Both short Tesla positions remain open.
I’ll likely close the 2nd soon, however given Tesla continues to slide despite markets overall - and its big tech cohort specifically - continuing to post new highs, I wish to remain very short Tesla to take advantage of this remarkable relative weakness.
I’m also of the firm belief that shorting Tesla is textbook value investing, and that most news for the foreseeable future will be bad for this company and the sector.
My target for Tesla is well below $50. It closed today at $172.82
EVs Emit More Particulates, One of the Most Dangerous Pollutants
“In addition to outright lies about particulates, mileage claims, and tire claims…” link.
Senator Warren urges SEC to investigate Tesla over board independence
EV euphoria is dead. Automakers are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans
Electric vehicle startup Fisker prepares for possible bankruptcy filing
Hertz CEO out following electric car 'horror show’
US automakers race to build more hybrids as EV sales slow
Green Wave in Reverse, Biden Rolls Back EV Mandates
Drivers don't want electric cars, Austin Martin admit
Alberta to introduce $200 annual electric vehicle tax
Tesla is not one of the 10 largest US companies for the first time in 13 months
"No Tesla Is Safe": Eco-Terrorists Attack German Power Grid, Causing Outage At Gigafactory
"We sabotaged Tesla today. Because Tesla in Grünau eats up earth, resources, people, labor and spits out 6,000 SUVs, killing machines and monster trucks per week. Our gift for March 8th is to shut down Tesla. Because the complete destruction of the Gigafactory and with it the sawing off of "technofascists" like Elend [sic] Musk are a step on the path to liberation from patriarchy," the eco-terrorist wrote in a 2,500-word attack on Tesla.
Ref:
Yen
Japan raises interest rates for first time in 17 years
17 years is a long time, and I expect a protracted turn much higher in the yen soon.
Accordingly, I’m long the yen vs. U.S. dollar via YCL.
Ref:
Big Tech
Nvidia leaps Aramco to be world's third most-valuable company
Apple iPhone sales in China plunge 24% as Huawei's popularity surges
Reddit Shares Soar As Much As 70% In NYSE Debut
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Cannabis
US Treasury Secretary Says It’s “Desirable” to Pass Federal Marijuana Banking Bill
US House: Federal Marijuana Banking Act Gains Three New Sponsors, Now Has 107
Suggested moves in cannabis have been very profitable, and sector still seems long-term constructive with a bullish “cup & handle” pattern potentially triggering:
Expect pandering power-pigs to buy votes during the latest phase of the never-ending U.S. election cycle by offering to finally somewhat free cannabis from the epic War On Drugs scam, the news of which will likely send the sector soaring.
Ref:
General Headlines
Toronto Police Gives Advice On Auto-Theft: Just 'Leave Your Keys Out'
UnitedHealth CEO Meets White House Officials After 'Biggest Cyber Attack On US Health Care System'
Wall Street Scrambles To Abandon DEI As "Legal Assaults" Mount
Evergrande: China property giant and its founder accused of $78bn fraud
Psychedelic drug ibogaine hailed as healing. US patients ask why it's illegal.
Elon Musk Hits OpenAI With "Breach Of Contract" Lawsuit For Abandoning Foundational Mission Elon Musk sues OpenAI accusing it of putting profit ahead of humanity
Legionnaires' disease is spreading because today's air is cleaner, surprising study finds
Many costly cancer drugs fast-tracked to approval - without proof of benefits
Alzheimer's Might Not Actually Be a Brain Disease, Expert Reveals
… a key 2006 research paper, published in the prestigious journal Nature, which identified a subtype of brain protein called beta-amyloid as the cause of Alzheimer's, may have been based on fabricated data.
One year earlier, in June 2021, the US Food and Drug Administration had approved aducanumab, an antibody-targeting beta-amyloid, as a treatment for Alzheimer's, even though the data supporting its use were incomplete and contradictory.
Link.
Trust the science?
Think for yourself.
This new format is great. I've been reading for a few months and had scrolled back on a couple of your ideas - to see today I missed seminal posts. Thanks for your ideas, and your effort.