Just 5 weeks after entry, levered silver position -AGQ - is already up 35% and I’m booking it.
Ref:
Silver Soon
Only gold protects your purchasing power and respects the fruits of your labor and sacrifice. In all of history, only gold has ever done so. Much excitement has accompanied the Nikkei surging to a new all-time high this week. It’s up 73% over the past 5 years, while gold vs. the Japanese yen during that same period is up 114%.
All I’ve written on silver specifically, and precious metals and commodities in general, remains current as I remain super bullish for the longer term. However process and prudence compel me to book such a massive short-term gain as retail investors pile in, with equities markets overall in a very precarious position.
I expect gold to consolidate or even retrace around $2350. It’s now $2295.
That’d mean silver takes a pause or sells-off awhile too, and if so I might reenter AGQ.
If metals extend the current rally, no worries closing AGQ today since the holdings in One And Done idea #4 - Gold, which contains 2 GLCC positions paying a huge dividend and 2 GROY positions paying a modest dividend, should keep running too.
Ref:
Gold, GROY (and Dividends) Again
History shows it’s always been a good time to buy gold. Of course some times to buy are better than others. In an excellent essay published with perfect timing in January 2020, “The Allegory Of The Hawk And Serpent: How To Grow And Protect Wealth For 100 Years
Note: 2 of the 4 GROY were subsequently sold at profit per this entry.
Chinese EV giant BYD posts slowest quarterly profit growth in two years
Tesla’s Sales Drop, a Sign That Its Grip on the E.V. Market Is Slipping
Ref:
Special Situation - Tesla Short
53 weeks ago, in “To Hedge Or Not To Hedge? ‘When?’ Is The Question”, I introduced the idea of the Japanese Nikkei as harbinger, and wrote: A new all-time high in the Dow, unconfirmed by other indexes, to mark the top of this phase shouldn’t surprise at all. It’d make for fine irony if one of history’s greatest false-breakout bull traps caps one of histo…
Cocoa breaks $10,000 record, with pricier chocolate to follow
Cocoa prices double from start of 2024 , extending historic rally
Apple, Meta and Google to be investigated by EU
"Huge Problem": Pentagon's Rapid Wartime Response Cargo Ships Trapped In Baltimore After Bridge Collapse
Our “best and brightest” who keep us safe from har…
Infrasound From Wind Turbines Could Be 'A Huge Threat To The Entire Biodiversity'
More than 70,000 wind turbines operate across the United States, and the U.S. government continues to approve offshore wind projects as part of its transition toward clean energy. […]
“With ever larger wind turbines, the frequencies are getting lower and lower. This makes infrasound more problematic and dangerous.”
Of course they mean “clean” energy, given wind power at anything approaching mass scale is an inefficient, unproven, hyper-polluting animal-slaughtering grift-scam of historic proportions.
No surprise it damages humans too, in more profound and permanent ways than just its eye-rotting ugly esthetics savaging nature’s balance and beauty.
The Law of Unintended Consequences fully applies.
In the fullness of time the wind power as “clean” energy fraud will go down in history alongside mankind’s greatest missteps and fallacies; as forehead-slapping obviously stupid as children sitting in “non smoking” sections in restaurants and airplanes.
Forward to actual clean, safe, efficient and inexpensive energy…
In Historic Reversal, US To Restart A Shut Down Nuclear Power Plant For The First Time Ever
… first nuclear power plant to be reopened in the US, setting a precedent as atomic energy makes a triumphal comeback
Ref:
Uranium Now!
Nearly 1/4 of my posts the past 6 months had uranium in the title, including “Uranium Set To Explode” 5 months ago. No more than a few posts went by the whole year this substack has existed without my stridently bullish commentary on uranium. Are you making a killing?
Per Jeremy Grantham, the S&P 500 is in the top 1% of its historical valuation as measured by the Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (or "CAPE" ratio).
That makes this the third-most expensive level in U.S. stock market history. The CAPE ratio hit higher peaks only in December 1999 and November 2021.
The prospects for good returns from these peaks have been poor in the past. Grantham noted:
The only bull markets that continued up from levels like this were the last 18 months in Japan until 1989, and the U.S. tech bubble of 1998 and 1999. Separately, there has also never been a sustained rally starting from full employment.
Per economist and portfolio manager John Hussman, today’s market is in the top 0.1% of historical peaks.
I admire the work of both Hussman and Grantham very much. It’s worth taking seriously.
Ref:
Adding 2nd TZA
In “A Fine Day To Exit”, 7 weeks ago, I announced restoring my TZA hedge position. TZA opened the next day at $20.62 and a month later it was already 19% higher. I’m still holding it, as markets are too extreme to rush to dump a levered hedge. Meanwhile it’s come full-circle, closing today at $20.10
CBO warns US at risk of a bond market meltdown
Bank of Canada says the country faces a productivity 'emergency’
SWIFT planning launch of new central bank digital currency platform in 12-24 months
After 625 Days, The Longest Yield Curve Inversion In History
It can’t and won’t end well.
Restricting Freedoms May Be Necessary To Fight Climate Change: German Ethics Council
Canadian Parliament Moves To Impose Potential Life Imprisonment For Speech Crimes
Poland Prepares New Hate-Speech Law: 3 Years In Prison For Insulting LGBT People
Remember when China was derided for being an authoritarian outlier? As was Germany, but today nations have so many things in common across all cultures and “borders”…
China scrambles to prevent another big property developer going bust
American FICO Credit Scores Decline First Time In Decade
Income Needed To Afford A Home In The US Has Soared By 80% Since 2020
Obesity now greater risk to global health than hunger, study finds
Mass Layoffs Begin At California Fast Food Chains As $20 Minimum Wage Law Takes Effect
Are these cases of The Law of Intended Consequences?
Unbridled widespread Big Piggery and idiocy does have consequences, eventually.
Think ahead and act accordingly because it can happen, and already is happening, here. All of it, wherever “here” is for you.
Turks pile into US dollar, gold and stocks as 67% inflation savages 'worthless Lira’
Apologies, article originally contained a typo. Corrected to read: “I expect gold to consolidate or even retrace around $2350. It’s now $2295.”