In marketing the four P’s stand for product, price, place and promotion.
My four P’s for success in speculating: Patience, Prudence, Process and Persistence.
Natgas headlines from the past few days:
Natural gas plunges to its lowest level since 2020 as winter demand concerns fade
Drillers Dial Back - Prices have fallen by two-thirds since mid-December
Owning natural gas, with leverage via BOIL, is my 10th of 10 “One And Done” ideas.
I’ve recently been adding BOIL every dew days, now up to a full position at an average cost of $5.64 It closed the week at $5.96
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If you’d prefer no leverage, consider UNG.
Strategy is simple: No stop. If it goes lower, over time I’ll add at ideal points as determined by my scoring system. Current score for natgas: i1, m0 .
Ideal timing is when m turns from 0 to 1, however the risk/reward profile here is extreme ergo so is my approach. A key precursor to m moving from 0 to 1 is i changing from 0 to 1, which did occur three weeks back.
If this proves a false signal - no system is perfect and I’m admittedly entering early from a timing perspective - I’ll consider it a gift and double or triple the position each time i signals similarly.
Over time I wouldn’t be surprised to ramp this position up to 3-10x my normal sizing. Per my process that can only happen by starting “too early”, with enough patience and prudence to net an excellent result.
Persistence will pay, and in my experience it’s best to be extremely long setups of this rarity no matter the time, cost or effort required.