The Tech Tally’s Tell That The Tech Rally’s Terminating
Few were bullish on the tech sector going into 2023, while I was hyper bullish.
So far in 2023 tech’s had its best year ever, while I’ve turned bearish.
A live look at tech stock buyers:
Let’s check the score.
Here’s a primer on my scoring system. In that post I used Amazon and Meta (Facebook) as examples, citing this sentiment in addition to my metrics:
It’s almost impossible to imagine a more bullish headline for tech:
“Hedge Fund Shorting Of Tech Stocks Hits Record High”
Those who were levered long tech - and dead wrong - a year ago are now heavily short and will likely be proven dead wrong again.
Now, as reported by Reuters last week: Hedge fund exposure to 7 biggest tech stocks at record high
8 months ago:
AMZN - i1, m1
The i for AMZN last turned from 0-1 bullish middle of May last year around $112. It reached $146, 30% higher, before i rolled over from 3-2 bearish mid August at $134. Then AMZN crashed.
Its i score turned bullish from 0-1 again early November circa $93. AMZN dropped to $81 by late December but today in mid January has bounced to close at $95.
When a shift from i1-2 eventually occurs, ideally concurrent with m pivoting from 0-1, it’s a signal to hold on longer, possibly adding to the position.
AMZN m just turned from 0 to 1 this month. M changing from 0-1 is the signal for investors to accumulate.
For AMZN m last flipped bullish 0-1 March of 2019 around $85, then ran over 100% higher to $177 eventually turning bearish from 3-2 in September 2020 at $158
By then there were myriad reasons to reduce tech and retail exposure, AMZN in particular. It wasn’t too long after this major bear signal that the teetering Jenga of global speculative mania in full evidence at the time finally toppled.
AMZN barely went higher before the code-red danger signal of m plunging to 0 flashed in July 2021 around $167. After collapsing over 50% by late December to $81, today Amazon closed at $95.
Since then AMZN has traded as high as $143, or +51%
Its scores for both i and m are likely to turn bearish within weeks.
Also 8 months ago:
META was key to my turning bullish on tech a few months ago.
META i3, m1
m previously turned bullish 0-1 for META in January 2019 around $153. By August 2021 it was 150% higher at $382.
m turned bearish from 3-2 the following month around $350.
By November 2022, 15 months later, it had dropped another 75% to a low of $88 while both m and i turned bullish from 0-1 shortly after, just above $100.
META reached just shy of $134 today, with m still at 1.
Meta recently hit $326, +143% since my post, +220% since my bullish signal in November.
Today? i0 with m rolling over at $295
This change in m is a signal for investors to reduce positions. An outright bearish m measure is reasonably expected within weeks.
The same is true across tech, if not equities markets overall, with Nvidia (NVDA) - which many now believe essentially underpins the entire market - very much included.
Meanwhile Tesla (TSLA) - a poster child for across-the-board magical thinking, “green” grifts, and unbridled speculation of the past several years - retains a staggering overvaluation, with highly suspect accounting treatments and a revolving door of dubious CFO’s preventing it from looking much worse.
It’ll eventually make this list of EV companies, most (all?) of which have had some level of scammery exposed:
Pivoting now from gigantic grifts and stock frauds to a serious environmental solution and sober speculation…
In 2006 a flood at Cameco’s Cigar Lake mine turbocharged the acceleration of uranium prices.
Today’s news: Cameco Provides Production and Market Update
Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) provided a market update today regarding challenges at the Cigar Lake mine and Key Lake mill that are expected to impact our 2023 production forecast.
At the Cigar Lake mine, we now expect to produce up to 16.3 million pounds of uranium concentrate (U3O8) (100% basis) this year, a reduction from the previous forecast of 18 million pounds U3O8 (100% basis). Production from the McArthur River/Key Lake operations for 2023 is anticipated to be 14 million pounds U3O8 (100% basis), down from the previous forecast of 15 million pounds U3O8 (100% basis).
Uranium 45% to 75% higher should be no problem, probably later this year.
2006 uranium…