Two - FNGU

My “one and done” for the tech sector is 3x bull ETN FNGU.

It holds 9 international tech giants - AMZN, MSFT, BABA, BIDU, NFLX, NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG and one EV darling - TSLA - in equal proportion.

Here’s its most recent fact sheet pdf from the Microsectors site - https://microsectors.com/wp-content/uploads/BMO_FNGUD_20221031_C.pdf

Other than the fantastically overvalued dumpster fire TSLA, its components are likely to remain going concerns and are collectively finally near somewhat sane valuations though another 50% lower shouldn’t surprise at all. Then we can talk fair value “investing”.

Some individual names in the group may be undervalued already? I’ll leave that to others, though I’m sure they stridently stated the same a year ago.

I was super bearish tech going into 2022 and short most of the year. Been chipping into 3x levered bull ETF FNGU recently on major down days.

For me this is speculation in products and brands I’m not especially interested in as a consumer - less than a fan of several of these brands - however when the current market malaise ends - this ain’t truly a bear market, yet - 100 to 200% appreciation is reasonable to expect in FNGU. At least.

It may even prove to be an opportunity of a lifetime.

Whether it takes weeks, months or years for that bull run to begin, quite possibly from a much lower level, I’ll agnostically add when my Technical Timing Techniques (TTT) tell me to.

Current avg. cost on my latest accumulation is around $40.00, with a dedicated cash cushion to add to the position by the grace of lucky timing on its past swings long and short, though it’s already grown to a top-5 position for me. I’m aiming for a grand-slam this time, not more base hits.

FNGU closed the week at $41.61

I do maintain market hedges, which I’ll multiply in size if major indexes start trading to new lows for 2023. The first week of the year’s trading has me cautiously optimistic, though at best my indicators are neutral.

History statistically suggests there’s a 30% chance the worst is over. More likely we’re 1/3 to halfway through. The real shit usually hits the fan once central banks start chasing debt market rates lower.

Around 2/3 of the way through a bear, gold typically starts a major run-up. I’m am very heavily long precious metals, commodities, and adding energy as we go. More on those upcoming.

Seems we may enjoy a massive rally in equities to start the year within a long term bear market. A new all-time high in the DJIA would be a perfect bull trap. Here’s hoping.

For now, surf’s up!

The Wave - Ralph Steadman. Buy cool art.