Last cannabis update was 3 months ago:
MSOX i3 m0 is still bearish
slow l/t accumulation only
MSOX closed at $4.61
I’ll top up to a full position above $6.31 and scale up to a triple position over $6.60
Now:
MSOX i3 m1, turning long term bullish
Read an explanation of my scoring system by clicking here.
MSOX closed today at $3.31
Via slow accumulation I’ve lowered the average cost on my position to $6.72
I’ll scale up to a double position when it trades again above $4.50
Not planning on a 3rd position for the time being.
Still true:
When a sector is so beaten down, with so many having abandoned it in frustration and losses, the upside is exceptional and often exponential.
Political winds slowly blowing in a favorable direction, though not without hiccups.
Patience, process, and prudence are paramount.
I came into 2023 as a virtually lone raging bull on tech, writing on January 11:
It’s almost impossible to imagine a more bullish headline for tech:
“Hedge Fund Shorting Of Tech Stocks Hits Record High”
Those who were levered long tech - and dead wrong - a year ago are now heavily short and will likely be proven dead wrong again.
It’s always comforting, fun, and often very profitable to find myself positioned opposite this cohort. Are they ever not very late to the party?
At the time FNGU was already up 20% in the three days since I’d nominated it my “one and done” for tech.
At last week’s high it was up 389% from my entry.
At today’s close, +364%
The tech-heavy Nasdaq is off to its best first half of a calendar year ever.
I was early again on tech however in April, not in a good way, closing out the last of my position when FNGU was up only 127% after reaching a prior high of +149%
Worse, I turned short tech via FNGD (the inverse of FNGU) which at today’s close is down 56% from my entry.
On the bright side I’m still way up on tech in aggregate so far, and positioned short while those chasing magical thinking and momentum - particularly in “AI” stocks - are probably late to the party again.
“The U.S President met with AI experts in San Fransisco today”, reads a headline that’s a gift to comedians if not a sign of peaking mania.
On May 30 I noted that “I may add to my tech short this summer.”
At the time the score for FNGU was: i25, m24
Now: i26 (down from a recent 28), m29 (both out of a possible 30)
Madness reigns, so I’m doubling my FNGD position, last at $8.90
Great writing!