HODLing A Crypto-mirror, And Staggering Sums
Huge gains already. More on deck? History repeats
This is an update on my “one and done” portfolio ideas for various themes.
For context click the section’s heading in bold to read the original post, which includes links for info about these positions and companies. Do your own research and be responsible for your own decisions.
Last weekend’s Positions Update is here.
Read an explanation of my scoring system here. I’ll elaborate over time.
As stated 2 weeks ago, absent a big rally in debt market rates the Fed has zero room to raise at its next meeting early February.
Gold however has tremendous upside. The setup is fantastic and it’s gone up an average of 7.7% per year over the past five decades while most portfolios and pension values have not. The purchasing power of the dollar has crashed over that time, and will continue to crash. Crypto-youth know this. Sadly most adults do not.
1. Crypto
ApeCoin +16% in 2 weeks, +21% if staked, max gain so far +33%
MARA +80% in 2 weeks, +117% at high.
This week cryptos consolidated the previous week’s gains, still looking constructive.
Today’s headline: Trump NFTs Back From the Dead: Daily Sales Surge by 800%
However the really big NFT news today is Yuga Labs’ online game Dookey Dash launched, with the price of its access passes rising as much as 105% the past 24 hrs.
Highest tier passes, given free of cost yesterday to holders of a Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT paired with a Bored Ape Kennel Club NFT, are changing hands in a liquid market at $9000 USD.
A Kennel Club NFT was available free to owners of the infamous “monkey jpegs” in summer of 2021. The least coveted ones traded for as much as $60000 in 2022, with some going for multiples more.
Lets rewind to the start, almost two years ago.
A Bored Ape NFT was about $200 at mint, but selling regularly for $250000 at the peak last year, with more desirable ones selling for millions. They’re a minimum $110000 today.
Bored Ape Chemistry Club “serum” NFTs were airdropped free to wallets containing a Bored Ape in late summer 2021. Those reached about $80000 in 2022, but go for $32k today.
Almost forgot! Plots of “land” in the upcoming metaverse-game Otherside were free to Bored Apes last year. The event was so wildly popular it caused an unprecedented hours-long seizure in the Etherium blockchain, spiking transaction fees above $300.
These metaverse plots could’ve been sold for $20k easily during the frenzy. The random 1-in-10 which came with a Koda went for $60k or much much more for prime properties with a Mega Koda. Today the most basic plots are $2100.
Finally, affordable real estate?
There’s also the 10950 ApeCoin that was free to keepers of a Bored Ape and the companion Kennel dog NFT. Easily sold for $90000 the day after, or $300000 a few weeks later leading up to the meta-land sale mania. It’s worth just $55000 today but can get 225% per annum in the ApeStake protocol launched in December if rewards are redeposited, without any lockup required.
If the above seems insane, reconsider global events and those in charge the past few years before casting stones. Consider the volumes of irresponsible bullshit all sorts of “experts” and old-school influencers were spewing while pensions were buying Tesla, ARKK, Carvana and probably Gamestop at the top.
The lines blur. CramerCoin is up 170% since mentioned 2 weeks ago. Its chart:
Absurdities in the worlds of crypto and NFT are merely fun-house mirror reflections of arguably far greater and more dangerous absurdities throughout society.
This essay on financial nihilism by Luke Burgis sheds more light.
If we truly seek to find reckless idiocy and decry it, let’s start at the top from where the most harm is done. At least in crypto if you do something stupid you pay for it, not your prudent neighbor or a future generation. You hold the bag and you go bust instead of getting a big bonus and promotion or reelection.
Merit and competency are valued, not grifting and victimhood, which is good because youth will need a lot of virtue and expensive jpegs to bail out “responsible adults”.
You build your world on lies and illusions But you never know that This is the conclusion… And if you live in a glass house Don't throw stones And if you can't take blows brother Don't throw blows Glass House - Peter Tosh
No excuses or judgements here for anything, just a different perspective to help understand, or perhaps accept, some things very hard for everyone to swallow.
The point here isn’t whataboutism in re: transnational socioeconomic circuses, or the dazzling sums still on the table even after a supposed full collapse of cryptos and NFTs. It’s about maintaining an open mind for opportunity.
Ultimately among the least exciting things about NFTs is the money. It’s about far more inspiring and liberating ideas and opportunities. I’ll get to that in later posts.
“It can’t continue!” your inner voice screams. Certainly seems true but timing is everything and we only get at best a part of the truth along with the most tired, tardy and polarized ideas from mainstream media, so long live Substack!
The point: these are cycles, and not just in speculations or mass psychology.
Cycles, by definition, repeat. World history, personal history and market history are a series of cycles: a recurring tragedy of self-sabotage and lemming moments for some, while a recurring bounty of learning moments and profoundly enriching for others.
“My grandfather always told me, there are two kinds of people in life. The doer and the loser. Which one are you?”
Tom Vu, no-money-down real estate infomercial legend of the 1980’s
Vu was preaching the gospel of house flipping 20 years before the 2008 real estate bust in the United States. By the time the house of cards in housing folded, Tom was already on to a new trend in card games turning small stakes into millions as a professional poker player. Hasn’t virtually everyone tried to do the same at some point, one way or the other?
Some parents of people making big money in crypto weren’t born yet when Vu was a beloved TV star. Those flipping NFT game passes today may’ve been barely beyond diapers in ‘08, and when they’re old enough for diapers again nothing will have changed other than they’ll probably be watching e-sports in a metaverse arena.
There’s always a mania somewhere, or a great leap forward, and always one of each comin’ right up.
The tech bubble happened. Virtually of that was a scam and Google was a laughed-at latecomer. Amazon only sold books and only lost money. Apple was best known as a has-been desperately trying to avoid bankruptcy, and it was unthinkable that BlackBerry wouldn’t dominate cell phones forever. The top handheld devices were made by companies named Palm Pilot and Handspring, tickers PALM and HAND.
The jokes wrote themselves at the time, while today that whole paragraph seems laughable. Imagine how impossible a lot of today’s events would seem back then.
Now, do you really think you know what the world, or technology, will be like in 20 years? Does your future self wish you’d been a little more open to possibilities?
It’s not uncommon to see a 20-yr spacing in major trends; roughly the time it takes a person to reach adulthood. This is true in social and fashion manias too. Pop-punk topped the music charts 20 years after real punk exploded onto the scene.
One could say it’s an “Inconvenient Truth” examples are everywhere.
In the financial arena excellent examples include the aforementioned real estate speculation booms in the mid-80’s and mid’-00’s, and tech bubbles popping in Y2K and ‘22 …
2. Tech
FNGU +20% in 2 weeks, +37% at high
i23 m10 = bear market rally
After one of FNGU’s biggest weekly percentage gains ever, on its highest weekly volume ever, a pause during an ongoing rally is normal.
Of Amazon, I’d noted last week:
When a shift from i1-2 eventually occurs, ideally concurrent with m pivoting from 0-1, it’s a signal to hold on longer, possibly adding to the position.
AMZN m just turned from 0 to 1 this month. M changing from 0-1 is the signal for investors to accumulate.
i has since jumped to a bullish 3, with m holding at 1.
AMZN closed at $93.68 Thursday, and it’s reasonable to be bullish above its close at the end of December of $84.00 with a great risk/reward here.
3. Cannabis
MSOX i0 m0 is bearish, slow l/t accumulation only
When a sector is so beaten down and with so many having abandoned it in frustration, the upside is exceptional and often exponential.
Political winds slowly blowing in a favorable direction. Patience, process, and prudence paramount.
4. Gold
GROY i2 m3 = l/t bullish
RVLGF scores and chart consistent with a stock about to rocket.
Sentiment in precious metals remains frothy, so expect a pullback soon. In case of consolidation or significant selling, I won’t add to positions until the scores reset then turn bullish again. Could take weeks or months. That discipline alone prevents the vast majority of mistakes made in markets at every level of participation.
Specific to GROY, I’m looking to add warrants once it trades back over $2.70
A couple more golden ideas were offered here:
ASM very bullish, breaking a 6.5-year down trend.
5. Financial
PYPL i3 m1 weak rally so far
6. Uranium
URA nearly breaking 15-month down trend
ANLDF bullish entry signal
DNN big bull signal in effect, technical “strong buy” above $1.35
UEC i3 m0 = wait. For long term investing we want m1 at minimum
UROY not yet at an ideal entry/add point
U.U i0 m0 = wait
SMR bearish possibly turning bullish, ideally wait before entry or add
7. Seven Sentries: Hedge, or no hedge?
i14/21, +1 from last week
m6/21, -4 since last week
No adding insurance or shorts.
Rising scores suggest safer conditions. Despite some deterioration in m, and the Dow having closed in the red for 2023, surf’s still up.
8. Dividends (and oil)
DVN slow accumulation, not yet ideal entry point for full positions
Oil on cusp of a major bull signal, but even when that triggers it could be the case that equities won’t immediately correlate.
Setup’s looking good though, across the energy sector.
MO slow accumulation, not yet an ideal entry point for full positions
QRTEP slow accumulation, not yet an ideal entry point for full positions
In closing, another inconvenient truth:
Great info and examples. Pop culture references help the understanding as always in your writing. Tom Vu?!! Never looked at him that way but… 🤦🏻♂️… you made a good playful point! Punk indeed too. Thanks for the observations and delivery!