Update: October 02, 2023
My ten “One And Done” sector plays:
Crypto. I’m very profitably short, after closing extremely profitable longs.
Big Tech. Currently short after closing extremely profitable longs and shorts.
Cannabis. Long, having closed a profitable position.
Gold. Long, and in the red for now.
Financials. Long, with two very profitable positions already closed.
Uranium. Long. Super profitably.
Hedges. Still hedged, and ahead.
Dividends (and Oil). Roughly flat.
Nothing yet in this slot.
Natural Gas. Unprofitable so far, still following the plan.
While I have booked some quick gains when it seemed prudent to do so, remember the intention here is not to churn.
To that end, I’m simplifying my scoring system and considering placing Berkshire in slot 9. When the timing is ideal, of course.
In baseball terms, I’m after home runs with a very high batting average. I’m succeeding. Some positions have already been closed for more than 100% gains not long after my calls. One went on to run more than 300% higher, and one 400%.
Sometimes however - particularly with hedges, shorts, and overweight positions - we want to advance by base hits.
Either way, slow and steady wins the race with minimal effort and outsized returns.
Crypto
ApeCoin remains fully hedged since $4.20 with staking rewards going to cash.
I’m much less net short crypto now, rather building a pairs trade of increasing size: Bitcoin Cash (BCH) long vs. short a basket of alt-coins.
I’ll accumulate BCH above $228
I’ll balance that by adding shorts in alts when it’s below that level.
Dividends (and Oil)
Oil looks long-term bullish, but now’s not a good time to buy or add in the sector or to “bottom fish” dividend payers.
Am happy holding Devon Energy (DVN), possibly adding eventually.
Financials
Huge profits will be on offer next cycle, however I think that begins from much lower levels than today.
Buy levels for BNKU are unchanged since “Surfing Big Waves of Bank Bailouts” posted March 19:
I’ll add 1/4 of a position for roughly every 20% drop.
+ 1/4 at $11.50
+ 1/4 at $9.25
+ 1/4 at $7.40
+1/4 at $5.93
By then I’d have a 2x position at avg. cost of $11.50 and will reassess.
Alternately I might repurchase one or both of my sold BNKU positions when its score turns upward again.
Uranium
Statista: The Countries Committing to Nuclear Power
“Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years – and we are the ones driving these changes, together."
- President Xi to President Putin 3/22/23