News & Positions Review - March 04/23
"nuclear energy is critical, largest source of carbon-free energy" - US Energy Dept.
Bipartisan Nuclear Fuel Security Act
The bipartisan legislation directs the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to establish a nuclear fuel program with the purpose of onshoring nuclear fuel production to ensure a disruption in Russian uranium supply would not impact the development of advanced reactors or the operation of the United States’ light-water reactor fleet.
Biden Offers $1.2 Billion To Nuclear Power Plants At Risk Of Closure
As part of a program to support nuclear power generation and the goal of zero-carbon electricity by 2035, the Biden Administration on Thursday offered funding of $1.2 billion to nuclear power reactors that are at risk of retiring soon or that ceased operations since November 15, 2021.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today released application guidance for the second award cycle of the Civil Nuclear Credit Program, a $6 billion funding part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to prevent the premature retirement of nuclear reactors across the country.
The Biden Administration considers nuclear power generation as a pillar of the zero-carbon electricity by 2035 goal.
“As the nation’s largest source of carbon free energy, nuclear energy is critical to meeting the President’s goal of achieving 100% clean electricity by 2035,” the Energy Department said.
Charitably ignoring the typical pandering total bullshit of “100% clean electricity”, much less “by 2035”, one more time with emphasis on the factual:
nation’s largest source of carbon free energy, nuclear energy is critical
Please see Ugly Inconvenient Truths for a brief excoriation of popular “clean energy” BS. Just don’t tell these poor gullible souls about it:
This is an update on my “one and done” portfolio ideas for various themes.
For context click the section’s heading in bold to read the original post, which includes links for info about these positions and companies. Do your own research and be responsible for your own decisions.
Read an initial explanation of my scoring system here.
1. Crypto
ApeCoin +49% at high since called 7 weeks ago, much more if staked
MARA +134% at high, now +57%
As noted previously, MARA profits and the core position had been trimmed considerably when it was up ~ 100%. The position is now 1/4 its original dollar value and effectively cost-free.
ApeCoin remains intact and staked, still withdrawing staking rewards to cash - effectively reducing my cost base - until I measure its technicals as bullish again.
CramerCoin up 193% at the high since I started writing about it in January, rallying this week in anticipation of the project’s “Chad Money” platform launch soon.
Mastercard to allow crypto payments in Web3 via USDC settlements
The Mastercard-Immersve partnership uses decentralized protocols to settle real-time cryptocurrency transactions on outlets accepting Mastercard payments online.
2. Tech
FNGU +134% at high since called 7 weeks ago, now +87%
i25 m16 = bear market rally
I noted my FNGU holding has been sold down to 1/2 its original dollar value, leaving me with a very fat profit in hand and an effective cost base of less than $zero.
I’ll reduce it to 1/4 if it drops below Friday’s low of $70.85
Stock buybacks have been in the news recently. Most buybacks occur along major market tops. 2021 was no different.
2023 has started off with the highest dollar value of buybacks in 20 years. The lowest? So-called “Great Financial Crisis” market bottom of 2008 and 2009, of course.
No capitulation has been evidenced the past few years. It’ll come.
3. Cannabis
MSOX i3 m0 is still bearish, though steadily less so
slow l/t accumulation only
MSOX closed the week at $5.62
I’ll add up to a full position above $6.31 and scale up to a triple position over $6.60
When a sector is so beaten down and with so many having abandoned it in frustration and losses, the upside is exceptional and often exponential.
Political winds slowly blowing in a favorable direction. Patience, process, and prudence paramount.
4. Gold
GROY i0 m0
Still holding GROY and others mentioned, though the score across the sector is bearish in the intermediate term.
That’s normal during a consolidation in a long-term bull market, but stay hedged if otherwise overexposed to precious metals since it could be a long consolidation and a deep retracement could be part of it.
Specific to GROY, I’m looking to add warrants once it trades back over $2.70
A couple more golden ideas were offered here. I’m still holding both, no stops.
Headline:
Iran's currency plummets to all-time low amid anti-regime protests, sanctions Inflation has risen to an annual rate of more than 53% in Iran
Gold +8800% in 24 years vs. Iranian rial:
Like all nations, Iran has issued no end of scamcoins official currencies over the years, and plans to replace the rial (again) soon.
5. Financial
PYPL i2 m1
PayPal sold at break-even as I’d stated I would, due to its remarkable relative weakness cited three weeks ago.
I’m planning to pick it back up eventually, likely at a much lower level and better setup, or switching to a “different one and done” for this sector like Shopify or Block.
6. Uranium
The chart for uranium could not look better. It’s arguably crazy not to be invested in it, and totally irresponsible not to crank up the exposure when the timing’s right.
URA i2 m1, broken 15-month down trend, super bullish > $23
ANLDF long term bullish entry signal in effect
DNN technical “strong buy” above $1.35
UEC i0 m0 = wait. For long term investing we want m1 at minimum
UROY not yet at an ideal entry/add point
U.U i2 m0 = long term bullish, not an ideal entry/add point however
SMR bearish possibly turning bullish, ideally wait before entry or add
5 weeks ago:
Keep an eye on Lightbridge too. I’ve been accumulating in expectation of enjoying its next parabolic advance. Ah, the enriching beauty of a good company with a minuscule float in a highly volatile and cyclical sector.
I’ll keep adding LTBR periodically below $5. Above $5 I expect it to skyrocket.
7. Seven Sentries: Hedge, or no hedge?
i10/21, rallied from last week m7/21, neutral
No adding insurance or shorts.
I’m not shorting or hedging since I sold most higher-risk items like tech and crypto down to an effective cost below zero.
If not primarily in cash or resources, or well hedged, you might get lucky but you’re staring down a loaded barrel.
For now however, the coast seems clear.
8. Dividends (and oil)
DVN slow accumulation, not yet ideal entry point for full positions
Oil turned bullish on Thursday at $78.50 and the setup’s looking good across the energy sector, especially in natural gas.
MO slow accumulation, not yet an ideal entry point for full positions.
QRTEP is the ticker for Qurate’s 8% preferred shares. QRTEP’s dividend is about 17% based on the week’s close, still at a good entry point for full long term positions.
9. Battery Metals
Three weeks ago, and still so:
High odds my top pick will be Talga Resources, which I’ve owned and been accumulating the past 18 months with an average cost of $1.14 USD
This report makes the case, however the timing signal to buy/add is not yet in effect:
https://talgagroup.eu-central-1.linodeobjects.com/app/uploads/2023/01/14125115/120822EH.pdf
“Don’t worry, it’s coming.” - Clutch, Spacegrass
10. Natural Gas
Natural gas remains very bullish, and BOIL is already up 32% in a week since posted.
Current score for natgas: i1, m0
Over time I wouldn’t be surprised to ramp this position up to 3-10x normal sizing, because winning is best done in bulk, though I’ll only add on specific setups.
Ideal timing is when m turns from 0 to 1, however the risk/reward profile here is extreme ergo so is my approach. A key precursor to m moving from 0 to 1 is i changing from 0 to 1, which did occur four weeks back.
Awesome stuff!