News & Positions Review - March 09/23
Time to start hedging!
Headlines, and possibly pure coincidence:
Canadians say they are overtaxed as total bill eats 45% of income
Record-high number of Canadians don't think they will ever afford a home
Gold is up 3750% vs the Canadian dollar the past 50 years. Definitely not coincidence.
Headline:
Nearly 60% of institutional investors admit to making investments based on information from Reddit
Also not coincidence, considering the abysmal track records of commission churners.
Crypto news:
Bybit to Launch Debit Card as Mastercard Gets Deeper Into Crypto
Illinois bans banning “green” energy scams:
More news worth reading in the relevant sections below.
This is an update on my “one and done” portfolio ideas for various themes.
For context click the section’s heading in bold to read the original post, which includes links for info about these positions and companies. Do your own research and be responsible for your own decisions.
Read an initial explanation of my scoring system here.
1. Crypto
ApeCoin +49% at high since called 8 weeks ago, much more if staked
MARA +134% at high, now +35%
As noted previously MARA profits and the core position had been trimmed when it was up ~ 100%, to 1/4 its original dollar value and effectively cost-free.
ApeCoin remains intact and staked, still withdrawing staking rewards to cash - effectively reducing my cost base - until I measure its technicals as bullish again. At that time, perhaps soon given crypto has sold off remarkably since I pivoted to cash, I’ll put that cash back into staked ApeCoin.
CramerCoin had another great week, having gained as much as 355% since I started writing about it in January.
Reported by The Bear Cave:
J Cap Research published on Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA — $745 million), a digital asset mining company. J Cap alleged the company has overstated its purchases of miners and that most of its existing digital asset mining devices are not currently operational. In addition, J Cap highlighted “a series of highly questionable payments” by the company including share grants to a nonexistent entity, a $35 million contract with a related party, and “huge deposits with service providers for unclear reasons.”
Mastercard to allow crypto payments in Web3 via USDC settlements
The Mastercard-Immersve partnership uses decentralized protocols to settle real-time cryptocurrency transactions on outlets accepting Mastercard payments online.
2. Tech
FNGU +134% at high since called 8 weeks ago, now +66%
i16 m16 = bear market rally rolling over
I’d noted my FNGU holding had been sold down to 1/2 its original dollar value, leaving me with a very fat profit in hand and an effective cost base of less than $zero.
Last week I stated I’d reduce it to 1/4 if it dropped below $70.85 That happened today.
3. Cannabis
MSOX i3 m0 is still bearish, though steadily less so
slow l/t accumulation only
MSOX closed at $5.11
I’ll add up to a full position above $6.31 and scale up to a triple position over $6.60
When a sector is so beaten down and with so many having abandoned it in frustration and losses, the upside is exceptional and often exponential.
Political winds slowly blowing in a favorable direction, though not without hiccups.
The short article is worth reading, while keeping in mind medical dispensaries and the multitudes of people in Oklahoma gaining income from the illegal drug trade - including war profiteers on the side of the law - tend to vote against legalization.
Best part:
Republican Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt opposed the legalization. In February, Stitt provided a pathetic rationale for his position that was an affront to the principles that animated the American Constitution:
"There shouldn't be a patchwork of states doing different things. We need to let the feds tell us if it's legal or illegal, we shouldn't let the states tell us that."
That proclamation would be cringeworthy no matter who uttered it, but the fact that those words came from a supposed "conservative" makes them all the more exasperating.
The 10th Amendment provides that "the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people." Despite profoundly flawed Supreme Court opinions to the contrary, the federal government has no constitutional authority whatsoever to declare marijuana or any other drug illegal.
Patience, process, and prudence are paramount.
4. Gold
GROY i0 m0
Still holding GROY and others mentioned, though the score across the sector remains bearish in the intermediate term.
That’s normal during a consolidation in a long-term bull market, but stay hedged if otherwise overexposed to precious metals since it could be a long consolidation and a deep retracement could be part of it.
Specific to GROY, I’m looking to add warrants next bullish signal.
Revival Gold (TSXV: RVG, OTC: RVLGF) was part of the “Bonus Basket”, then at $0.50, stating that I “double-dare you to do your DD and not come away impressed in context of its peers at that price.” https://revival-gold.com
Bucking trends, and without any news catalyst, Revival posted its highest close in over a year other than a single close higher by only 1c on June 21 of last year. Super bullish.
A couple more golden ideas were offered here. I’m still holding both, no stops.
5. Financial
PYPL i2 m1
PayPal sold at break-even as I’d stated I would, due to its remarkable relative weakness cited four weeks ago.
I’m planning to pick it back up eventually, likely at a much lower level and better setup, or switching to a “different one and done” for this sector like Shopify or Block.
6. Uranium
The chart for uranium could not look better. It’s arguably crazy not to be invested in it, and totally irresponsible not to crank up the exposure when the timing’s right.
URA i0 m0, broken 15-month down trend, super bullish > $22
ANLDF long term bullish entry signal in effect, but only buy > 7.5c
DNN technical “strong buy” above $1.35
UEC i0 m0 = wait. For long term investing we want m1 at minimum
UROY not yet at an ideal entry/add point
U.U i2 m0 = long term bullish, not an ideal entry/add point however
SMR bearish possibly turning bullish, ideally wait before entry or add
6 weeks ago:
Keep an eye on Lightbridge too. I’ve been accumulating in expectation of enjoying its next parabolic advance. Ah, the enriching beauty of a good company with a minuscule float in a highly volatile and cyclical sector.
I’ll keep adding LTBR periodically below $5. Above $5 I expect it to skyrocket.
We often say that if nuclear energy were discovered today, it would be heralded as planet-saving technology to be invested in and propagated at warp speed. An intelligent global energy policy with nuclear power as a foundation can provide abundance to all humanity with minimal impact on the environment. Without hyperbole, there is no path to a decarbonized economy that avoids mass starvation and economic collapse without nuclear power, and the hardest opponents of the technology know it.
Hat tip to Liberty’s Highlights.
7. Seven Sentries: Hedge, or no hedge?
i9/21, down 1 from last week m5/21, down 2 from last week
It appears the statistically normal bear market rally of the past 5 months has ended.
For this “one and done” I’m going with TZA which closed at $30.84
Other than natural gas, which offered a huge return within a week (see #10 below), I’ve been selling and urging caution the past month.
Three weeks ago in this section I noted: “these scores having plateaued signal an intermediate pullback or much worse.”
The past two weeks I stated: “If not primarily in cash or resources, or well hedged, you might get lucky but you’re staring down a loaded barrel.”
Still true. No capitulation has been evidenced the past few years in equities. It’ll come.
8. Dividends (and oil)
DVN slow accumulation, not yet ideal entry point for full positions
Oil turned bullish March 2nd and the setup’s looking good across the energy sector, especially in natural gas.
MO slow accumulation, not yet an ideal entry point for full positions.
QRTEP is the ticker for Qurate’s 8% preferred shares. QRTEP’s dividend is about 20% based on today’s close, still at a good entry point for full long term positions.
9. Battery Metals
A month ago, and still so:
High odds my top pick will be Talga Resources, which I’ve owned and been accumulating the past 18 months with an average cost of $1.14 USD
This report makes the case, however the timing signal to buy/add is not yet in effect:
https://talgagroup.eu-central-1.linodeobjects.com/app/uploads/2023/01/14125115/120822EH.pdf
10. Natural Gas
Natural gas remains very bullish, and BOIL gained 32% a week after I posted on it.
That was two weeks ago though, and last week it retraced all of that gain and more.
Current score for natgas: i1, m0
Opportunity is knocking once again.
Over time I wouldn’t be surprised to ramp this position up to 3-10x normal sizing, because winning is best done in bulk, though I’ll only add on specific setups.
Ideal timing is when m turns from 0 to 1, however the risk/reward profile here is extreme ergo so is my approach. A key precursor to m moving from 0 to 1 is i changing from 0 to 1, which did occur five weeks back.
Nice work! Thank you for the breakdown again!