Selling CPER and 1 of 2 GLCC
Booking gains on copper and gold
COPPER
When copper was suggested here in January 2024, the sector was totally out of favor.
The basket of ideas for copper were:
CPER - United States Index Copper Fund
UYM - ProShares Ultra Materials
COPX - Copper Miners ETF
2.5 months later, COPX and UYM were sold when 34% and 21% higher respectively.
Good timing. Despite the major surge in copper’s price since then, UYM is down around 16% from that suggested sale.
COPX is down roughly 13% since the suggested sale.
We chose to continue holding only CPER. Luckily it’s up considerably since then.
Fast-forward to 2025 and last week copper posted its highest price ever, $5.33, measured in collapsing currency.
Will the currency continue to collapse? Yes, absolutely it will.
Will the nominal price of copper in that collapsing currency be higher in time? Yes.
However it won’t go higher in a straight line. This substack offers no value, nor will its drastic outperformance remain intact, if lazily holding positions that have become very popular.
There are targets representing greater opportunity available now, for which capital will be required. I’ll post one such opportunity in the next day or few.
CPER closed Friday at $31.95, or up 35% since entry.
At its recent high, just a few days ago, it was up 40%.
That’s excellent performance, and CPER will be sold at the open tomorrow - Monday March 31, 2025.
Of course I’ll revisit copper when the world isn’t chasing its price, but for now the copper basket, One And Done Idea # 11 - Copper, will be empty.
GOLD
Gold, another idea that was not popular while I made the case for owning it almost every other update since this substack’s inception, is at an all-time high.
From central banks to professional money managers to retail investors - all cohorts that on average have abysmal track records, coming nowhere near the returns of major indexes much less gold itself - are now excited about and buying precious metals.
In other words, yes it’s time to trim gold exposure, but first a recap.
Those following along with this substack have done well in precious metals.
In April 2024 we booked a 5-week 35% gain in silver via AGQ.
Two GROY positions were sold in December 2023 for gains of 10% each after just one month’s holding time.
A third GROY position was sold in April 2024 after it ran up 49% in under 6 months, leaving 1 GROY and 2 GLCC positions in the gold basket at the time.
The remaining GROY position was $2.60 when suggested, currently down 45%.
March 20:
GOLD ROYALTY REPORTS FOURTH QUARTER AND 2024 RESULTS, RECORD REVENUE AND POSITIVE OPERATING CASH FLOWS WITH CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH EXPECTED IN 2025 AND OVER NEXT FIVE YEARS
The two GLCC positions are each up 56% (including dividends) in 15 months, now paying 11.5% yield based on the suggested entry price (8% yield based on Friday’s close of $33.79).
Seabridge Gold was put in the basket in July of 2024.
Recently Sitka Gold was also added, and it’s already up 39% in under a month, posting its all-time closing high on Friday.
Kingfisher Metals, while not “officially” in the gold basket, has been featured as a good speculation twice, most recently 6 weeks ago, and it’s up 34% since then.
With so many positions open and significant gains on the table, along with the market spotlight on gold now, 1 of the 2 open GLCC positions will be sold at the market open tomorrow - Monday March 31.
