Update, Adding BNKU and TZA (maybe)

FNGD, Coinbase and Tesla

WSJ: Turkish lira hits record low after Erdogan’s re-election

5. Financial

Summary:

I started chipping into BNKU March 15 with every awareness I may be very early. 

No stop. My avg. is $15.72

If BNKU continues much lower I’ll add a 2nd, perhaps 3rd position over time if or when the banking sector is under true duress or the sector’s finally truly oversold.

BNKU closed today at $14.46, the exact price it closed when I posted its last update March 19 which stated:

I’ll add 1/4 of a position for every 20% it drops from there, so:

+ 1/4 at $11.50

+ 1/4 at $9.25

+ 1/4 at $7.40

+1/4 at $5.93

By then I’d have a 2x position at avg. cost of $11.50 and will reassess.

The low since then has been $11.61, just shy of the $11.50 target for a first add.

Those levels to add remain in play and I will now also double the position when it crosses above $15.35

1. Crypto

COIN (Coinbase), which I termed “a reasonable short target in my estimation” two months ago at $67.72 was down 30% a month later.

Today it closed at $61.17, still down 10% from my call and still looking bearish to me.

In that same update I noted adding a 2nd position in TZA to short small-caps with leverage. It’s up slightly since then, and the position has basically just gone sideways since I began this round of shorting the Russell-2000 index via TZA.

I’ll add a 3rd TZA position if it trades back above $33.60

If it closes below $30.00 I will close all but the 1st position in TZA.

2. Tech

i25, m24

Read an explanation of my scoring system here.

Two months ago I stated of FNGU that “I wouldn’t be surprised with another 20-30% upside before it peaks.”

It’s now 52% higher.

At the start of this year few, if any, were as bullish tech stocks and crypto as me, or at least not for the same reasons.

6 weeks ago, after booking great gains in little time, I was far less enthusiastic.

A burst of speculative mania in AI-related stocks has since pushed the tech sector much higher.

I may add to my tech short - via FNGD (the inverse of FNGU) - this summer.

The sector seems extremely overbought, looking very 2001.

Speaking of AI, here’s some that isn’t.

MSN.com: Tesla Autopilot Name Lacks “Common Sense,” Says Top US Regulator

“I wouldn’t call something ‘Autopilot’ if the manual explicitly says that you have to have your hands on the wheel and the eyes on the road all the time,” Buttigieg said, quoted by Automotive News. “That’s not saying anything about the NHTSA scope of investigation, I’m just saying at a common sense level. I think that’s a concern.”

Washington Post: How Elon Musk knocked Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ off course

And some of Musk’s most loyal customers have given up hope that his initial promise will come true. Charles Cook, a commercial pilot and engineer from Jacksonville, Fla., owns a Tesla Model Y that he frequently drives in Full Self-Driving mode.

While he is amazed at what the technology can do, he is surprised by both the slow pace of progress and the status of Musk’s promises. “Someone might have purchased Full Self-Driving thinking they were going to have a robotaxi by now and spent their hard earned money on that,” he said.

“Now his engineers may have laughed at that” but “a customer may have spent $15,000 thinking they’re going to have it next year.” Those customers, he said, lost out. “I do not believe you can remove the driver on this hardware suite, ever,” he said.

The Visual Capitalist: The Drive for a Fully Autonomous Car

6 Levels of Driving Automation

Per the graphic above, Tesla’s “full self-driving” is a #2.