This is an update on my “one and done” portfolio ideas for various themes.
For context click the section’s heading in bold to read the original post, which includes links for info about these positions and companies. Do your own research and be responsible for your own decisions.
Last weekend’s update is here, including items almost certain to surprise.
Read an explanation of my scoring system here. I’ll elaborate over time.
As stated 3 weeks ago (at same link as above), absent a big rally in debt market rates the Fed has zero room to raise at its next meeting early February. Since then debt and equity markets have laughed in the clown-painted face of Powell et. al. at the Fed, calling B.S. on the tough-talking bluster and bluffing.
When I made that call it was totally counter-trend. Now betting is nearly 100% for a mere quarter-point hike or less. Up north this week the Bank of Canada got hip-checked into the boards of reality, tapping the brakes on its rate-raising rampage by hiking only a quarter point and all but guaranteeing a pause for at least a few cycles.
As noted then, when central bank rates turn lower is when bear markets usually get going in earnest, often concurrent with an “official recession” being retroactively declared. That may not be ‘til March.
1. Crypto
ApeCoin +47% in 3 weeks since called, +55% if staked
MARA +96% in same 3 weeks, +134% at the high.
As noted previously, MARA profits had been trimmed when it was up ~ 100%. I sold more this week. The position is now 50% its original dollar value.
ApeCoin remains intact and staked with i getting toppy suggesting a consolidation, or worse, is due across crypto. I’ll start withdrawing staking rewards to cash, a “stablecoin” or Paxos Gold (PAXG) tokens.
Recently ZeroHedge reported:
State Sen. Wendy Rogers (R-AZ) has introduced a set of bills aimed at making bitcoin legal tender in Arizona and allowing state agencies to accept bitcoin.
Should the measure pass the legislature, voters could choose in November 2024 to make virtual currency — specifically tokens that are not “a representation of the United States dollar or a foreign currency” - tax-exempt.
Godspeed!
CramerCoin is up 93% since I mentioned it nearly 3 weeks ago, up 147% at the high. A Q1 roadmap has been published for it. Seems a fun project:
The always enlightening Hindenburg Research published a scathing report on an alleged stack of scams allegedly run by the world’s 3rd richest man (that we know of).
It’s remarkable how many of the world’s richest are attention-seeking serial liars presiding over wildly popular public companies synonymous with an endless line of red flags allegedly including questionable accounting and reporting.
Tesla released its Q numbers this week. Its CEO is currently in fine form while on trial charged with another alleged fraud and it’s one of 10 components in FNGU…
2. Tech
FNGU +75% in 2 weeks, +80% at high
i28 m12 = bear market rally
From an update Jan.11 (linked above):
It’s almost impossible to imagine a more bullish headline for tech:
“Hedge Fund Shorting Of Tech Stocks Hits Record High”
When I made the FNGU call, a levered bullish big-tech position, it may have seemed almost as crazy as the crypto call. Since then virtually everyone has been chasing tech higher.
Accordingly my profits are off the table with the position now 3/4 its original value and effectively free of cost.
Netflix (NFLX) is a component in FNGU. Implied Expectations posted a fresh and thought-provoking take on the company and its potential significant new revenue streams here.
Of Amazon, I’d noted two weeks ago:
When a shift from i1-2 eventually occurs, ideally concurrent with m pivoting from 0-1, it’s a signal to hold on longer, possibly adding to the position.
AMZN m just turned from 0 to 1 this month. M changing from 0-1 is the signal for investors to accumulate.
Last week:
i has since jumped to a bullish 3, with m holding at 1.
AMZN closed at $93.68 Thursday, and it’s reasonable to be bullish above its close at the end of December of $84.00 with a great risk/reward here.
AMZN is up 17% over those 2 weeks, the easiest money now having been made.
Set funds aside for the inevitable Space-X IPO. It should be a lot of fun, and the “seemed headed for Mars then crashed back to earth” jokes will write themselves.
3. Cannabis
MSOX i0 m0 is bearish, slow l/t accumulation only
Head of MSOS, Noah Hamman shared today:
When a sector is so beaten down and with so many having abandoned it in frustration, the upside is exceptional and often exponential.
Political winds slowly blowing in a favorable direction. Patience, process, and prudence paramount.
4. Gold
GROY i2 m3 = l/t bullish
Last week: “RVLGF scores and chart consistent with a stock about to rocket.”
This week: RVLGF gained 12% to its highest weekly close in 2 years, without news or remarkable volume = long term ultrabullish.
Sentiment in precious metals remains frothy however, so expect a pullback across the sector soon. In case of consolidation or significant selling, I won’t add to positions until the scores reset then turn bullish again. Could take weeks or months. That discipline alone prevents the vast majority of mistakes made in markets at every level of participation.
Specific to GROY, I’m looking to add warrants once it trades back over $2.70
A couple more golden ideas were offered here.
This report on a single-day nearly 10% drop in the Pakistani rupee caught my eye.
Here’s a 2-year chart of the “mighty” U.S. dollar vs. the rupee:
Here’s gold up almost 3000% in 23 years vs. that rupee. Look closely to find a trend:
And here’s gold up over 400% the past 20 years vs. that “mighty” U.S. dollar:
Again, it could take close study to spot the overall trend. Once you do then you know what to do, because like the rupee your Big Bro-backed currency is a scamcoin too.
5. Financial
PYPL i3 m1 weak rally so far
6. Uranium
It’s arguably crazy not to be in uranium, and totally irresponsible not to crank up the exposure when the timing is right.
URA nearly breaking 15-month down trend
ANLDF long term bullish entry signal in effect
DNN big bull signal in effect here too, technical “strong buy” above $1.35
UEC i3 m0 = wait. For long term investing we want m1 at minimum
UROY not yet at an ideal entry/add point
U.U i3 m1 = bullish toggle last Friday. I’ve been adding the past week.
SMR bearish possibly turning bullish, ideally wait before entry or add
New idea: keep an eye on Lightbridge too. I’ve been accumulating in expectation of enjoying its next parabolic advance. Ah, the enriching beauty of a good company with a minuscule float in a highly volatile and cyclical sector.
Growing awareness of the wind / solar scam will add fuel to the nuclear explosion-like gains it’s reasonable to expect in the uranium sector, and a chart like this must never be ignored:
7. Seven Sentries: Hedge, or no hedge?
i14/21, no change from last week
m7/21, +1 since last week
No adding insurance or shorts.
Rising scores suggest safer conditions.
8. Dividends (and oil)
DVN slow accumulation, not yet ideal entry point for full positions
Oil on cusp of a major bull signal, but even when that triggers it could be the case that equities won’t immediately correlate.
Setup’s looking good though, across the energy sector.
MO slow accumulation, not yet an ideal entry point for full positions.
QRTEP is the ticker for Qurate’s 8% preferred shares. The common stock QRTEA is up 37% since I published on it. QRTEP’s dividend is 17.6% based on this week’s close, and it’s at a good entry point for full long term positions.
9. Battery Metals
A new “one and done” idea coming this weekend.
Meanwhile, here’s an eye-opening post by Matt Stoller: